LOOKING BACK AT LOOKING FORWARD: by Peter Petrisko As 1997 ended, with the year ahead still to be written, the following question was posed : Can a person with no developed psychic abilities, nor training in any methods of divination whatsoever, predict the future any better than the so-called "professionals"? To answer this question, one such person -- namely, me -- made up twenty predictions for 1998, then seeked out similar lists by those who'd been prognosticating for years in many cases. Annual predictions from psychic Sylvia Browne, web-based psychic Ellie Crystal, remote viewer Ed Dames, Native prophecies interpreter Robert Ghost Wolf, psychic & astrology scholar Sean David Morton, visionary Gordon-Michael Scallion, and Nostradamus-inspired astrologer Louis Turi (aka "drturi") were collected. Additionally, predictions for the first quarter of '98 by Annie Kirkwood were also compiled, with the intention of adding more to her short list when predictions for the remainder of the year were given. However, this didn't come to pass, as Kirkwood didn't release that followup list to the general public. Also, the annual predictions of Canadian psychic Earl Curley were originally included, but were later deleted from the tracking project upon his death in June '98. In the twelve months that followed, this plethora of prophecy was carefully monitored, each prediction tracked via television, newspaper and online media sources. As 1998 came to a close, the resulting "hits" and "misses" were carefully tabulated. The following is a synopsis of each prognosticator's predictions, broken down one-by-one. Individuals are listed in order of accuracy -- from the *least* accurate to the *most* accurate... Ever heard the phrase, "Jack of all trades, master of none?" By looking at his twenty predictions for '98, one might think it was referring to Sean David Morton. Psychic, channeler, faith healer, "Area 51" tour guide, amateur Egyptologist, Nostradamus scholar, and consultant for a UFO-contactee -- Morton has worn many guises in the decade or so he's walked in paranormal circles. If his vision of the last year did come to pass, the Federal Reserve would've crashed, we'd all be using "smart cards" instead of paper money, the Internal Revenue Service "as we know it" (as Morton put it) would be gone, political turmoil involving the resignation of Al Gore, the naming of Ted Kennedy as his replacement and the resignation of a scandal-ridden Clinton (but not before that predicted presidential heart attack!) should have occurred. As for Fidel Castro - can we say "overthrown"? (Later in the year, Morton did alter the timetable on Castro's overthrow a bit. He's now got until January 25, '99.) Poor Madeleine Albright would be dead or injured after a terrorist attack, scores of dams in northern California were supposed to break, major quakes might've struck Canada and north of San Francisco (7.2M and 6.0+M, respectively), noticeable rises in heat & UV-ray activity should've resulted from "ozone holes" opening over Los Angeles, and lastly, "Unabomber" Ted Kaczynski would have a date with the electric chair. Not to say Morton's predictions were all "misses". He did predict a hurricane in the Caribbean "wiping out" Cuban industry, and Hurricane Georges did do extensive damage to the island-nation. In lower California, power grids did go off for a number of days last winter. There were quite a number of forest fires in Colorado (although whether or not these could be called "massive", as Morton predicted, might be debatable), and there were a number of cases of the jet stream touching down near ground level, causing high winds. Two other predictions bear a closer look - With one, the wording was apparently slightly different in two different broadcasts. In the first, on a local KGO-AM show, Morton said "an STD (sexually transmitted disease)" would be cured, adding "probably AIDS". However, on the nationally syndicated show 'Coast to Coast AM', he said, "A major medical cure for a major sexual disease" would be found. Since the second one is better documented (via RealAudio), it will be the wording used here. Within those parameters, as Morton himself has claimed, the drug Viagra as a cure for impotency fits the bill. The other prediction, also claimed as a "hit" by Morton, has documented evidence stacked against it. It involved a "UFO mothership filmed in broad daylight", while the incidents cited by Morton as proof of this occurring were of lights filmed at night. (See - http://www.m-m.org/jz/mortonb.html ) Sean David Morton's score? Some five out of twenty correct. ACCURACY RATING = 25% Under the auspices of his Beverly Hills-based "technical remote viewing" company Psi-Tech, Major Ed Dames has pontificated a message of "doom and gloom" since the early 1990s. Originally envisioned as a form of "psychic espionage" by the U.S. military, Dames took what he learned and, after his retirement, - as he put it - "finessed and refined" the remote-viewing training protocols, taking it into the private sector. Of the thirteen targeted scenarios viewed for '98, the following never materialized: A "plant pathogen" cylindric object from space didn't impact near Lake Victoria (in Africa) by/around the end of February, nor did the later amended "view" of such an object disintegrating in the air instead, leading to air-borne spores killing plants world-wide, appear to occur. In fact, the usual global assortment of fungi, and other plant-killing organisms, did not appear to increase appreciably - as the effects of such a "pathogen" were seen to do. The North Koreans didn't use a missile-mounted nuclear weapon against their southern neighbors before the end of last winter, nor was "a nuclear reactor (used) as a weapon" in northern Spain shortly thereafter, as Dames said it would be. President Clinton did "make it to the end of the year". No reports of cannibalism came out of eastern Europe. A "bigger/stronger"-type tornado, one that literally ripped people asunder, wasn't seen in the U.S. Midwest. A war involving the PLO and Israel didn't occur. A global economic collapse never happened in late spring and/or early summer, although economic hardships did continue in the Asian region and some parts of the world experienced recessionary times towards the end of the summer -- but certainly not to the extent, economically nor regionally, as viewed by Dames. Interestingly, North Korea did launch a ballistic missile, which splashed down near Japan, last summer. Also, air-borne radioactivity was detected over parts of Europe (including Spain) around the same time, which was eventually tracked down to an alleged leak at a steel plant in the region. Both of these events, in the very loosest sense, have parallels to two of Dames' remote viewed predictions. This makes one wonder if, perhaps, the so-called "finessing" of the RV protocols by Dames might just have been a little too finessed, adversely affecting the delineation of details and, ultimately, accuracy. As far as accurate views go, there was quite an increase in diseases - also resulting in an increase in the deaths of children - but not nearly to the extent ("totally ravaged globally", "so virulent, so rapidly that the CDC, & other centers akin to that, won't be able...to keep up...") seen by Dames. In many regions, these increases were due to El Nino-inspired flooding and other destruction. So, while Dames was correct about the effects on children, his general view might be considered half-correct. Dames was absolutely correct about the U.S. being unable to make it through a season without crops being damaged and destroyed in many places, with food prices skyrocketing as a direct result in many cases. And, while a coronal mass ejection and/or solar flare from our sun didn't hit Earth, blinding and burning people, a blast of X-ray ejecta from a nearby star did pound into our planet in August. Again, this could be seen as being "partially correct" in what Dames had predicted. Dames also said the next volcanic eruption in North America would be Mammoth Mountain, but since no eruption occurred on that continent in '98, the prediction becomes moot and isn't counted as a "hit" or "miss". Major Ed Dames' score? Three (that being 2 "hits" and two "half-hits" combined) out of the remaining twelve viewed scenarios correct. ACCURACY RATING = 25% Perhaps the longest-running prognosticator tracked in the last year was visionary Gordon-Michael Scallion. Shortly after a life-changing series of events which began in 1979, events paralleling those of Edgar Cayce decades earlier, Scallion began his career with vision-induced medical diagnosis. He later began to see visions of "Earth changes". In '98, most of his predictions were of this latter type. A good number of the more extreme visions didn't come to pass as Scallion expected in '98, including the almost-weekly failure "en masse" of magnetic devices and electronic circuitry (especially satellites & aircraft), the first measurable pole shift - of 6-7 degrees each time in "about three stages" - in a westerly movement, a catastrophic volcanic eruption at Montserrat (although a few rather minor eruptions did occur), the complete melt-off of the Antarctic with land and structures then revealed, and a "significant release" occurring in Italy. (A large number of minor temblors occurred in that country throughout the year, however.) Scallion foresaw "highest stress and greatest releases" of tectonic activity along the coast of South America, and along the U.S. West Coast, plus such activity - greater and sooner - in Japan. Activity along South America's coast, itself within the already tectonically active "Ring of Fire", generally wasn't much greater than in previous years. At Japan - usually the most active area in the world - the "greater and sooner" activity was usurped in the early part of '98, in both magnitude and frequency, by quakes in the Phillipines region, the Fiji Islands and Indonesia. However, the case could be made that the U.S. West Coast did see "high stress" throughout the year, with at least one "great release" of 6.0M just south of Alaska during late summer. Other "hits" include rising ocean levels, with coastlines changing in some parts of the world (especially island-nations in the Pacific); tornadoes occurred in strange places - such as New York state (only 7 in the last 24 years before '98) and the Russian Far East (first ever); and more vulcanism in the last year, although only by a small margin (two more than the previous year.) Also, it was reported in early '99 that brain tumors (i.e. "more effects of brain cancer") have been inexplicably on the rise. In addition to the thirteen predictions made at the start of the year, Scallion made six others in June - most predicted to occur during the rest of the summer months. Only one occurred, and then only partially, in that the Mammoth Lakes area did see a gradual rise in the caldera which was determined to be caused by rising magma levels beneath the ground. So, while it can be said that vulcanism in the area did "heat up" (as Scallion said it would) there was no venting seen. The other five: multiple volcanoes going off "en masse" in the Ring of Fire; a much earlier hurricane season; quakes in Manhattan, Long Island & Connecticut; major activity from Salt Lake City to Bakersfield (CA); and 7.0+M quakes in the U.S., didn't. GM Scallion's score? Five (That's four "hits" and two "half-hits" combined) out of nineteen correct. ACCURACY RATING = 26%. Marian locutionist Annie Kirkwood began the year with a serious message of wintertime calamity. Pointing out that her predictions came from another source in this case, not Mary, but not specifically stating whom, many dealt with harsh cold for the months of January through March. Some, such as ice storms affecting air travel, fruit crops in Florida being wiped out, large amounts of snow in France and Germany, the complete snowing in of Washington DC's airport, and icestorm-caused power outages in Oklahoma didn't come to pass. Nor did a predicted flooding on a massive scale in Australia ("like the U.S., had in '95"). However, others did. In her biggest "hit", mudslides wiped out whole villages in the Andes. Also, it snowed in Jerusalem - for the first time in over 6 years. Twice. Epidemics struck in all four South American countries that Kirkwood predicted. The western U.S. did have a normal to mild winter. One other prediction, that the central U.S. would be frozen in "an arctic blast" between January and February, missed by only a few days, when record-setting low temperatures struck the region the first two weeks of March. Also in that region, limited road access did result in some food shortages - although trucks weren't loaded onto rail carrier, as she had stated beforehand. As stated earlier, unlike all others tracked, Annie Kirkwood's predictions applied to the first quarter of 1998 only. With that in mind, she had five (four hits, two "half-hits" combined) out of thirteen correct. ACCURACY RATING = 38% The next two participants had an equal number of predictions and equal number correct. So they are listed alphabetically. Popular "psychic detective" and medium Sylvia Browne made a series of predictions during one of her regular appearances on the syndicated television talk show, "The Montel Williams Show". Upon her return on-air in early '99, the following 1998 "misses" weren't mentioned again: A 5.4M+/- quake near Seattle, supposedly to occur in January '98. A quake in Madrid, around 7.8M, in May. A volcanic eruption in Japan last spring, with released gases affecting (or even killing) thousands. Mike Tyson biting a police officer, then ending up in lock-up. Daytime maven Rosie O'Donnell quitting her afternoon slot. More militia groups coming forward, forming "stand offs". Nation of Islam's Farrakhan moving to the Middle East. More bad press for "TV evangelists". The Princess Di conspiracy scenario (which the investigators dismissed at the one-year anniversary mark last Summer). However, a number of "hits" were touted. Others, inexplicably, weren't mentioned, but occurred nonetheless. The most specific was that hurricanes, especially in August, would batter Mexico and southern California - hitting Cabo San Lucas. It was hit on September 2nd. Also, she predicted brief skirmishes with Iraq, but said full war would be averted. One incident early in the year, and a four-day series of strikes in late December may have staved off a full war so far. In the early part of '98, when a war did appear to loom, there were war protests on collage campuses - including a rather embarassing one during a live telecast by members of the White House staff. Texas researchers did discover a "youth enzyme" which, they say, will soon lead to hormonal therapy techniques - just as Browne predicted. Also, scientists tentatively believe that clear-cutting of trees may be attributing to global warming. At least four other predictions were, in part, correct. While "Whitewater" itself did sink, it was also the impetus for the Ken Starr investigation -- so it cannot be said that "nothing came of" 'Whitewater'. And while it might be said that Clinton was exonerated in the Paula Jones case (it was dismissed, and later settled out-of-court), it wasn't revealed to be a "smear job" from the start. Browne's prediction of a "big shakeup at '60 Minutes', with new people brought in" after the tv investigators were, themselves, investigated, turned out to be little more than one errant producer apologizing for an erroneous on-air story. That one producer was then replaced. Lastly, a "AIDS vaccine", as such, wasn't approved for human use, but... a drug that prevents most babies from getting the disease from their mothers, if given at certain times during pregnancy, was brought into use. Sylvia Browne's score? Some nine out of twenty correct. ACCURACY RATING = 45% Using "divine astrology", which he likens to the methods of Nostradamus, french-born Louis Turi published over twenty predictions in his annual "moon power" book series in late '97. Dr. Turi, who has a Ph.D. in metaphysics from Sacramento's Universal Light Institute, usually prognosticates in allegorical verse form (similar to Nostradamus' "quatrains") but used standard sentence structure in his annual list. Of the twenty predictions (chosen at random) tracked, the following fell short of the mark: The (US) Social Security system has yet to undergo "a full and positive restructuring", recycling wasn't enhanced in many U.S states nor enforced by so-called "environmental police", cigarette and alcohol manufacturers didn't face tougher and more controlling laws, a "serious sea accident" involving the spillage of tons of poisonous chemicals thankfully didn't happen (although the second part of that particular prediction - thousands of gallons of oil spilled into oceans - did), "many more churches" weren't burned down (as seen in previous years) with only two incidents making headlines all year, the assassination of one of four Middle East leaders never came to pass, and a new bacterial disease originating from Africa wasn't discovered. On the other hand, the following events did occur: 1998 was definitely a year "with more water, more wind"; more news of cults suicides was reported, with one attempt thwarted in Spain and another in South Korea successful; a number of jail riots occurred; water-bourne diseases (like dysentery) and poisoned water consumption in underdeveloped countries increased; an increase in flooding led to a dam failure in Sudan; and both volcanic eruptions and earthquakes increased slightly over the previous year. (Eruptions by two, quakes by a few hundred.) Some predictions came to pass in part only. While a wave of religious fanaticism continued to plague the world, suicidal bomb attacks never spread into U.S. and European cities. Greenpeace did capture much of the news, as it has in previous years, but it cannot be said that its power increased significantly. And while the stock market did take a plunge on August 31, it didn't "crash" in March, nor in September - in fact, gaining back all but about 80 points lost that fateful late Summer day in the following month. Dr. Turi's score? Nine (7 hits, 4 "half-hits" combined) out of twenty correct. ACCURACY RATING = 45% Much has been insinuated about the ancestry and past of Robert Ghost Wolf, interpreter of Native American prophecies, but the fact remains that close to half of those interpretations were realized during 1998. Ghost Wolf, which is a nickname given by a medicine man during ceremony close to ten years ago, bases his predictions on both metaphorical and literal interpretation. Some were evidently mis-interpreted, and didn't happen as Ghost Wolf said they would. The magnetic poles didn't shift by 32 degrees. Nor did "holes" emanating green mist open in the skies. More deformities of newborns, akin to those seen in frogs (multiple limbs, missing organs, etc), weren't reported. A man-caused event of chain-reaction eruptions, Mount Popo followed by Mount Rainer, never materialized. And major quakes along the Pacific coast, as many as 3200 a month, never wreaked havoc. Nor was a prophesied 2+ day solar eclipse seen as of August 22nd. Two more "great women" on the scale of Princess Di and Mother Teresa didn't follow them into the afterlife. However, there were many more reports of both animals stalking/attacking people on land and thousands of lifeforms dying in the seas. Several "lost cities" and ancient temples were rediscovered. Remains of an ancient eskimo village were found in the state of Alaska. Miraculous sightings of sacred people, like Jesus and Virgin Mary, increased on a global level. In a number of countries, financial institutions did break down. And the year was particularly devastating for Japan and Central America, the former economically and the latter environmentally when Hurricane Mitch crossed its path. Lastly, while there were numerous crop failures - as Ghost Wolf predicted - "supermarket prices" didn't rise 60-80%, with most increases in the 15-25% range. Robert Ghost Wolf's score? Some eight out of seventeen correct. ACCURACY RATING = 47% The next two prognosticators were the only ones to score fifty percent or more. Ironically, they are also the least known of the bunch. Web-based psychic Ellie Crystal, who runs the popular Crystalinks website in addition to lecturing and conducting readings, broke even in 1998. Unlike others, Crystal predicted that nothing significant would be discovered on Mars this year. Conspiratorial face-mongering aside, it appears she was correct. As stated previously, sightings of the Virgin Mary (and other "religious masters") increased globally, which she also stated would occur. The U.S. stock market roller coastered throughout '98, dipping up and down nearly 1500 points in short starts and fits. A mild winter in the (US) northeast, and an eruption of Mount Popocatepetl during the summer, came to pass. In the early part of the year, a series of quakes hit the Pacific Northwest, as was foreseen. "Whitewater" itself was blown over, as the U.S. had "more important issues to deal with". Including, as was predicted, another scandal for the White House. A new, TB-like, disease was detected (in France). Popular singer Barbara Streisand did marry, and remains so. Finally, thanks to the remnants of hurricane Georges, the Mississippi area was flooded. An equal number of "misses" included the discovery of a second sun, appearing orange/yellow like a supernova; fire and race riots in a large southern city over the summer; the unexpected passing of another major member of European royalty in the Spring; a rapid South Pole meltdown, revealing geological and archaeological treasures; a major winter-time quake in Japan, with shock waves continuing for months; the resignation of an ill Pope John Paul II; another scandal for the British Royal family; incredible pyramid discoveries involving "creational secrets and God"; a New Jersey quake in the summer; and the return of the Democrats to power in November. (Better luck next November election, if the backlash holds.) Crystal did have a small number of additional predictions, most of which were of a rather esoteric nature and, therefore, rather untrackable. Ellie Crystal's score? Some ten out of twenty correct. ACCURACY RATING = 50% Lastly, there is Peter Petrisko. Editor of online digest "Earth-Changes Weekly", prophecy tracker, and, as it turns out, a pretty good guesser. The method of divination was loosely based on what would eventually become known as "scientific prophecy", wherein two or more past events are combined in order to determine a probable - but different - third, and future, occurrence. That, and being well-read when it came to current (and recently past) events. As was predicted, there was a sharp increase in the number of upper respiratory infections and severe asthma cases in '98. Due mostly to the effects of El Nino, but also possibly to "global warming". A number of major U.S. cities - from Miami, to Chicago and the LA basin - had extended power blackouts. A large number of fires (brush- and forest-) during the summer months, though, was probably the biggest "hit". At the start of the year, panic over a possible "bird flu" epidemic grew, but as predicted it never materialized. As reported by MUFON, a UFO (a "plasma UFO") appeared near JFK Airport which is, mostly certainly, in a major U.S. city by the east coast. Massive flooding occurred in a number of Midwest states, from Wisconsin to Kansas. Also, another animal-to-human viral transmission, this time on the African continent, occurred in Kenya and Somalia when a speculated new "super-strain" of anthrax jumped the species barrier. Frank Sinatra died. Two major disease outbreaks, one a traditional "outbreak" and the other a cancer outbreak caused by poisoned water consumption, occurred in Southwest Asia in one of four countries specifically named. A major quake, 7.7M, hit Japan. A volcanic eruption occurred off the coast of the US Pacific Northwest. And an informal survey at the start of '99 showed that bomb shelter (underground shelter) sales in the U.S. did, in fact, increase by as much as 50%. As with others, some events didn't come to pass. At year's end, Texas governor George W. Bush had yet to announce a run for the presidency. The Pope remained in power. The New York Knicks weren't triumphant in the NBA playoffs. A cult suicide in Europe didn't happen, thanks to quick-acting police in Spain. Another "teen idol" didn't succumb to drugs, nor was another member of the British royal family in a major accident. The U.S. government and a survivalist/militia group hadn't come to blows, nor was a Russian "nuclear suitcase" used in a terrorist attempt unsuccessfully. Peter Petrisko's score? Some twelve out of twenty correct. ACCURACY RATING = 60% So, in conclusion, the answer to the question, "Can somebody with no developed psychic abilities, nor any training in divination methods, out-predict the prognosticators?", is, apparently, a resounding "Yes!" Now who could've predicted *that*? ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- (c) 1999, Earth-Changes Weekly / Peter Petrisko. This article may not be reproduced without the permission of the author. One exception - It MAY be forwarded, in its entirety only, to non-commercial online mailing lists. All others, please seek permission before reprinting. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- A full listing of "hits/misses" RAW DATA is collected and displayed in an FTP file (along with this article) at: ftp://ftp.primenet.com/users/p/ptp/prediction98.hits Additionally, both raw data & this article will be available on the following websites AFTER Wednesday, 1/27/99: http://www.m-m.org/jz/98hitsmisses.html http://www.SpiritNexus.com/hits.htm Peter P. is a Phoenix-based freelance writer who has split his work life during the past ten years between journalism (both as a freelancer & on staff of a biweekly alternative paper) and assisting the developmentally disabled. He is currently tracking 1998 predictions, which is part of the reason for 'Earth-Changes Weekly'. Subscription to the list is free, and there are various methods of interacting with it. For further information contact: ptp@primenet.com
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