From JONATHAN LATIMER

First of all, since you probably don't know me, I'm Jonathan Latimer of Q&A Technical Support. I have been involved with the computer industry for more than 15 years, and have been running a successful independent consultancy for the last three. As such, I have been aware of the Y2K problem for quite a bit longer than the people who were the main speakers at today's meeting.

Secondly, I want to say that I do support many of the ideas presented. Community teamwork is a very important thing, Y2K or not. But my instinct tells me that if this idea of a Community Outreach centers too much on the Millennium Bug, that when that does not materialize, the Outreach will break down. This has been shown again and again in history.

The idea that nothing may happen was touched on briefly, but not nearly as much as it should have been. It must be made absolutely clear that a community for the new Millennium is not centered around the Y2K bug, or natural disasters, or anything of the like, because it is centering it around something negative, and possibly non-existent. You need a strong root for an idea like this to flourish, and that root cannot be a lie.

That said, here are some facts and where to get more.

The Y2K problem has been bandied about by many here and elsewhere. It will be inconvenient. It will cause problems. It will not bring about the end of civilization.

The timing of the problem seems to be the main thing that gets people up in arms. If this were the '1987 computer bug' I don't think it would be getting near as much press, just because humans put a lot of stock into numbers with a lot of zeroes. It turns out, however, that computer bugs like this happen all the time.

If you check out CNET's Y2K articles, you will find this:

"The Y2K problem is unusual because it affects so many computers. However, it is neither particularly complex nor is it unprecedented in the history of computing." See http://www.cnet.com/Content/Features/Dlife/Millbug/ss06.html

OVERVIEW OF Y2K AND WHAT'S BEING DONE

The Y2K bug is a real problem, it's a widespread problem, and it needs to be fixed. But most of society's vital organizations expect to have the critical portions of their systems repaired or replaced in time. And nobody who's actually working on the millennium bug expects anything near the apocalyptic scenarios put forth by the doomsayers.

THE INTERNET:

It was suggested in today's meeting that the Internet is like 'one giant computer' and that if one section goes, they all go. This could not possibly be any farther from the truth.

The Internet, when originally designed, was a network that was made to withstand an atomic assault. The entire concept was a system of computers that, when vast numbers of the nodes were utterly destroyed, would continue functioning on whatever was left. That is STILL true today. VAST numbers of computers across the 'net can cease functioning and the system will automatically route and reroute traffic until it can get to its destination.

The Internet is NOT one giant computer, it is millions of separate computers; which is much more powerful.

Also, there is talk of non-Y2K complaint machines 'infecting' Y2K-compliant machines after January, 2000, thus causing the Y2K fixes to be ineffectual. That is not the case either. The Y2K problem does not spread like a virus, infecting computer after computer. If Y2K sensitive data enters a non-compliant machine, it can break that machine. If the machine is Y2K compliant, it won't break. The computer's interpretation of data is what causes the problem, not the data itself. It does not spread like an infection.

MYTHS AND FACTS

MYTH: THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED IN COMPUTER HISTORY

FACT: "Nicholas Zvegintzov has studied computer science and artificial intelligence since the 1960s and has been a software consultant for nearly 20 years. While he acknowledges that there is a real Y2K problem, he dismisses most of the horror stories as the tales of the inexperienced. "As a thing to do with code, it's not especially complex. It's actually a very clean problem; you can throw some clean techniques and clean tools at it."

He calls the Y2K bug fix "an exercise for the software novice" and predicts that business will continue more or less as usual when the millennium rolls around."

"Zvegintzov characterizes the Y2K problem as one of bounded storage, which simply means that hardware has limited storage capabilities. For example, according to the Year 2000 FAQ, storage space was so tight in the past that one-digit dates were occasionally used. If you counted down through the 1970s with a one-digit date field, you had the same problem when the date ticked around to 1980. Other examples of bounded storage also occur when users demand more features in a software application or when an area code fills up with phone numbers. These problems are similar to the Y2K bug and are the kinds of issues that software engineers deal with all the time."

"One person who programmed COBOL for the U.S. Air Force in the 1970s jokes, 'I honestly don't see what the Y2K fuss is about. The computing world ended a long time ago. In fact, the computing world ended eight or nine times already.'"

See http://www.cnet.com/Content/Features/Dlife/Millbug/ss06.html

****MYTH: THOSE PESKY 'EMBEDDED CHIPS' ARE GOING TO MAKE ALL MY HOME APPLIANCES AND MY CAR STOP RUNNING.

Home electronics devices--including coffeemakers, VCRs, and cars--often use processors that perform simple computing functions.

A British organization, the Institution of Electrical Engineers (IEE), has posted some information about how the Y2K bug might affect these embedded systems. According to the IEE's Web site, some microprocessors might simply fail to detect the two-digit year 00. This could mean your VCR will stop recording your Monday night show, but it could also pose problems with ATMs, automobiles, medical equipment, and even elevators.

****FACT: YOUR CAR AND YOUR HOME APPLIANCES COULDN'T CARE LESS WHAT THE DATE IS.

Nobody in any of the organizations CNET spoke with could substantiate this claim, which seems to have entered the mass media through a recent Newsweek cover article on the year 2000.

Ed Korenman is the staff director of communications at the Consumer Electronics Manufacturers Association, a trade association with members from most major electronics companies. He says, "We've spoken to our head engineers, who have spoken to all the engineers in the field, and we don't believe that the year 2000 poses any problem for traditional consumer electronics products. There was actually a piece in [a major daily paper] that mentioned VCRs. We've delved into that issue and discovered that it wasn't accurate."

Otis Elevator is similarly skeptical of the claims that embedded chips in elevators could cause stalls or crashes. "We have done a thorough review of our elevator systems all around the world, and we have never found any reason to expect that the millennium bug will have any effect on Otis elevators. Our systems aren't date-dependent in any way," says Peg Hashem, a spokesperson for the company.

Bob Wynne, media representative for Bank of America, said the bank's Y2K team is not really concerned about ATM malfunctions. "[Our engineers] don't want to sound cavalier about it, but they are concentrating on the mainframe fixes."

Y2K consultant Peter de Jager has posted dozens of alarming articles on the millennium bug as it relates to mainframes. In contrast, only one recent posting mentions embedded systems--and the author flat-out states that "most [embedded systems] won't fail" and that "very few firms will jeopardize their future by ignoring this issue."

In fact, there is no concrete evidence that any embedded system will fail.

See: http://www.cnet.com/Content/Features/Dlife/Millbug/ss05.html

Also, there is the small matter of physics involved. When your VCR or microwave are unpowered, either because you unplugged them, or a blackout occurs, what happens when you plug them back in? When your car's battery dies completely, and you get it replaced, what exactly happens? You have to reset your clocks on your VCR and microwave, as well as your car's clock and all your favorite radio stations that the radio has forgotten. What does that mean to the 'embedded chips?' It means they have no concept of how much time has passed. This is VERY important, so I'll say it again.

THERE IS NO WAY FOR A SYSTEM, NO MATTER HOW EMBEDDED, TO KNOW HOW MUCH TIME HAS PASSED WHEN IT IS DE-POWERED.

What does this mean? It means your car's onboard computer systems REVERT BACK TO THE DEFAULT DATE OF THE MANUFACTURER.

Your car may think it is August, 1985, or June, 1980, or any other random date in the past; the date of manufacture. The embedded chips have no way of recognizing the true date. If they did, how come you have to reset the clocks on your appliances after a blackout?

Therefore, if you HAVE a Y2K vulnerable chip in your VCR or Microwave or car, chances are good that it has reverted at least once since you got the appliance.

If not, unplug it, wait for a couple of minutes, and plug it back in. There. You have just reset the date back to the date of manufacture. You now have a random number of extra YEARS before you have to worry about the pesky embedded chip, and if the appliance or chip stays powered long enough to cause problems, unplug the thing, wait a moment or two, and plug it back in. The embedded chips' dates revert, and you have years of use before you have to worry about it again.

There are no BIOS batteries to keep an appliances' date, like there are in computers. If the date resets after you unplug the thing, its onboard-embedded chips will not fail on Jan 1, 2000. Period.

****MYTH: MY COMPUTER AND DATA ARE TOAST BECAUSE OF Y2K, AND THERE'S NOTHING I CAN DO.

****Fact: If you have a Macintosh, run Unix, or are running a WINDOS computer that is newer than 1994, you are 99% sure you are Y2K Compliant. If you aren't compliant, your computer's BIOS manufacturer has a Flash ROM upgrade that will solve the problem.

The advice I have been giving people is the same as I tell my computing clients:

BACK UP!

If you have IRAs or are getting Social Security checks, have them draft you all the pertinent information, and keep it safe. Make sure your latest banking statements are up to date, accurate, and keep them safe. Have them on paper, the best back-up stuff there is. No computer bug can destroy paper. Do NOT panic, and immediately withdraw all your money from the banks, because in doing so YOU are the thing creating a banking crisis, and making the Y2K bug nothing but a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Keep records about what you have, and what you are owed, and to what you are entitled. I'd say that even if there were no Y2K bug at all. That way, when a computer crash does happen (and it will, regardless of Y2K or not) you have the stuff to prove who you are and what the numbers should be. Problem solved. Inconvenient as hell, but a solution nonetheless.

As to stockpiling of food and supplies, it is probably good to do some of that anyway. Most places are prone to one kind of natural disaster or another; here in Hawaii hurricanes, tsunamis, and possible volcanism are the biggies. Having a few days of non-perishable food, a portable water purification system, an emergency kit, and an automobile with three-quarters of a gas tank is simply prudent, regardless of Y2K or not. Keeping your personal papers and documentation up to date, organized, and in a safe location is the rule, not the exception.

The bug is serious. However, I do believe that millennial superstition certainly plays a part in its widespread reportage and the general overreaction I have seen here and elsewhere. The world will survive. Lives will continue. Civilization won't end. Just make sure you have copies of your banking statements. :)

Well, I have gone on, haven't I? Feel free to distribute this, if you wish. You can email me questions, if you wish. I won't charge for Y2K explanations. :)

Jonathan